Gemma Dales returns to the Property Insights podcast to discuss Australia’s economic outlook, investor behaviour, and consumer confidence.
Gemma is the Director of SMSF (Self-Managed Superannuation Fund) and Investor Behaviour at NAB Trade, an online broking platform for buying and selling shares. She is also a regular market and finance commentator on many media platforms including Your Money, Sky Business, Sunrise, AFR, ABC TV and Radio, and Channel Ten.
Gemma hosts the Your Wealth podcast, a weekly podcast for investors, featuring insights and updates from market and finance experts across a range of topics.
Key Takeaways:
- Consumer confidence is ‘absolutely horrendous.’ The recent consumer confidence survey reports Australian confidence at a record low, lower than during the GFC and COVID-19 pandemic.
- The low consumer confidence is showing up as reduced spending on discretionary expenditure, including items like travel and private schooling. Other indicators have remained relatively strong, but some signs of weakening are emerging, with retail sales falling as of last month.
- Gemma and Mark’s analysis show that the impacts of interest rate hikes is clearly biassed against house owners in the 32-48 ys demographic, with renters also doing it tough. This is putting pressure on businesses. ‘Hang on till 2024,’ Mark says.
- While the consumer survey is not seen as particularly predictive of property prices, Gemma expects that we should see some moderation in house price increases unless the massive increase in immigration driven housing demand continues to drive prices high.
- ‘These high interest rates aren’t going to last forever.’ Gemma suggests the RBA will remain cautious about rate changes in an effort to ensure a stable economic recovery and avoid inflation and excessive property market growth. She predicts 3 cuts to somewhere between 3-3.5% as rates normalise starting mid-to-late 2024 and into 2025.
