Nerida Conisbee, Chief Economist at Ray White, joins Mark Bouris on Property Insights to unpack what is really happening in the Australian property market, and where prices could be heading next.
With interest rates rising, consumer sentiment falling, investors pulling back and the latest Federal Budget creating more uncertainty, the property market is at an important turning point.
Nerida shares Ray White’s latest data on buyer activity, explains why open home numbers have fallen sharply, and reveals why she believes national property prices are unlikely to fall more than 5% from peak to trough.
The conversation goes deeper into what actually determines property values, the role banks and borrowing capacity play in setting prices, and why construction costs could ultimately put a floor under the market.
Nerida also explains why population growth and jobs remain critical drivers of regional property markets, what has transformed places like the Gold Coast and Geraldton, and how infrastructure such as train stations, public transport, retail precincts and proximity to water can influence long-term property values.
She also gives her view on Melbourne, houses versus apartments, interest rates, unemployment, rental supply and the potential impact of fewer investors entering the market.
If you’re a homeowner, investor, first home buyer or simply trying to understand where the Australian property market is heading, this episode is packed with insights into what the data is actually telling us.
Topics covered
Where the Australian property market is heading
Why buyer activity and open home numbers have fallen
The impact of the Federal Budget on investors and first home buyers
Why negative gearing changes could reshape parts of the market
How banks and borrowing capacity influence property prices
Why construction costs could create a floor for property prices
Regional property markets and the importance of population growth
What has driven the huge growth of the Gold Coast
How jobs, migration and infrastructure influence housing demand
Why train stations and public transport can create a property premium
The long-term impact of being near water and local amenities
Melbourne as a potentially undervalued market
Houses versus apartments: which performs better over the long term?
Nerida’s forecast for Australian dwelling prices
Where interest rates could go from here
Unemployment, inflation and the Reserve Bank’s next move
The impact of fewer investors on rental supply and rents
Chapters
0:00 — Introduction: Nerida Conisbee joins Property Insights
0:49 — What’s happening in the Australian property market?
1:51 — Is negative sentiment being driven by the media?
2:19 — The impact of the Budget on property investors
3:27 — Why prices may not fall as much as expected
4:35 — How media forecasts influence buyer behaviour
5:25 — What actually determines the value of a property?
7:10 — Do banks ultimately set property prices?
8:19 — Supply constraints and the floor under property prices
9:58 — Renovations, construction costs and buyer preferences
11:33 — What’s happening in regional property markets?
11:41 — Geraldton: prices doubling in five years
13:18 — Population growth, jobs and housing demand
14:20 — Why Southeast Queensland has boomed
15:14 — What’s changed on the Gold Coast?
16:07 — Population growth and the economic multiplier effect
16:42 — How important is infrastructure to property values?
17:22 — The property premium from public transport
18:08 — Why proximity to water matters
19:18 — Walkability, amenity and future property growth
20:43 — Train stations, infrastructure and property values
21:50 — Nerida’s property hotspots
22:08 — Why Melbourne could be undervalued
22:26 — Houses versus apartments
23:28 — Nerida’s forecast for property prices
24:15 — Could rates fall next year?
25:20 — Inflation, unemployment and the RBA
27:01 — What happens if unemployment rises?
28:11 — Government policy and housing commentary
28:58 — The impact of fewer investors on rents
29:50 — Final thoughts
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